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Price Horse Central – 3/19/10 – California Comments and Suggestions

Hate to say it, I really do, but the field size at Golden Gate has gotten so low that I have a difficult time ferreting out much.  I still look at it everyday but rarely find anything worth taking a shot with that is backed by some reasonable thought process.  Sure, I can take a stab here or there but it’s usually not much more than that.  Hope that once they get back on the turf course (soon, I hope), that things will improve.  They can’t even run the Super High 5.

Trainer Jorge Gutierrez has won a couple this week and when Bejarano is up, that usually means the horse is live.

Santa Anita

Race 1:  Probable pass very contentious race.  From a “who rides for whom” perspective, believe that Brazilian Charm (1) wins that battle as Bejarano is also money rider for a couple of others in here and nothing wrong at all with Kathy Walsh except for the price on this one which is 3/1 on the ML and going lower.  Jt combo 1.

Race 2:  Probably pass but note that Rosario sticks with First Queen (4) for Walsh and they are very prolific right now so no surprise if this one also runs well.  Lupita’sluckyangel (5) is as honest as an older mare can be but home more times can they go to well with her?  New trainer is low profile but not incompetent.  JT combos 4

Race 3:  Pass.   Didn’t put likely winner Squallcreek (7) new Mitchell claim on the daily because at 5/2 is not a “price horse” but still will be a big player in this on the jump up in class when horse is already “out of jail.”  Cannot ignore Pleasure to Ride (5) but small field doesn’t leave a lot of options.  JT combos 2, 5, 6.

Race 4:  See Daily Report for comment on Michaels Jila (4) new to Mullins barn from TuP.  Big opportunity for Atkinson who has not ridden for Mullins for a couple of years.  Will want at least 5/1 to play this one to win.  Also, respect anything Barba sends out so Ned Page (8) is certainly not out of it.  No  JT combos

Race 5:  Cannot believe that Roar of Applause (4) will go off anywhere near 10/1 but if it does, believe MItchell means business with this one first time off the boat.  He’s done things like this before, at a bit of a price and while he and Sutherland haven’t been overly active together at this meet, they do have a bit of history and she’s an excellent turf rider.  At 6/1 or better, worth a shot with this bunch.  JT combos 2, 3

Race 6:  Probable pass.  Note that Peacock Alliance (3) is turning back for Hendricks who is effective with that move.  Ishmael (7) is second off the claim Chalk Festival horse for O’Neill who uses Bejarano so is also live.  Neither are long priced and will have to beat ML favorite Joyful Success (5) for Miller.  Jt combo 7.

Race 7:  Pass.  DRF cover story Kelly Leak (7) will take a lot of action but is no value. and will certainly have to run down  Mr. Gruff who will be winging  and no value.   Perhaps Tres Borrachos (6) at a reasonable price can pick up the pieces if the top two falter.  Jt combo 4.

Race 8:  See Daily Report for comment on Mary’s Dancer (9), the Machowsky entrant that is not on the DRF’s cover.  Trainer can fire early and uses Atkinson.  Will have to beat obvious chalk Lady Adelle (7) for tough Sadler/Rosario combo.  JT combos 7, 9.

Golden Gate

No suggestions worth mentioning today.  When they can only get 47 horses to enter an 8 race program, things are pretty tough.  JT combos only

Race 1:  None

Race 2:  1

Race 3:  2, 5

Race 5:  5

Race 6:  1, 5

Race 7:  1, 3, 4, 6

Race 8:  1, 6

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About The Author

Mark Geiger
I was born and raised in Chicago. I first went to old Sportsman's Park in Chicago in 1968 and have been hooked ever since. In the 90's I published Sherlock's Trainer Report which reported on trainer patterns on the California circuits. In the interim, my involvement with this game has been as a fan and wagerer. I study human intention and proficiency. At the track, this often takes the form of changes in a horse's condition or its rider. I look for price horses. I do this by examining factors that the public minimizes. Find a horse that you like that the public should not and you might have a value play. I also employ a methodology that focuses on horses that have a good chance of landing in the exacta. While many of these are chalk horses, an occasional price horse pops up. These exacta horses, which are listed here everyday, run first or second at least 40% of the time. In a game where 20% is a high batting average, the possibilities are endless.

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