Price Horse Central

The spies say it’s another cool but clear day in Southern California.  Warren has a couple of ideas at Santa Anita and his “complete” write up is on the site.  He also has an interesting play at Oaklawn which, as far was we can tell (we don’t have any spies in Arkansas), is to get some rain today.  I am very interested in a barn switcher at GP that moves from Tampa to GP and finds itself in the prolific Walder barn with the inimitable J.R. Velasquez saying OK to the ride.

Santa Anita

Race 1:  Probable pass for me but note that Come Home Quick (7) has speed and is stretching out.  Glatt barn been quiet at this meet but is capable and Talamo is their money rider.  The lead should be there and price is the issue as to whether this one can hang on.  At 4/1, not so interested.   JT combo 7.

Race 2:  Probable pass for me but note Warren likes chances of Prince Rexy (4) who is short priced in race in which all have a chance.  JT combos 2, 3.

Race 3:  Game time decision in competitive race.    There are a couple in here that merit some extra attention.  Dos Veinte (2) is well prepped for this and might give it a shot to beat obvious Baffert firster Done (5) who has a bullet work and money rider up.  Would need all of ML of 6/1  to hold but  believe DeLima barn likes to go to the windows so would want to see some evidence of that.  JT combos 3, 5, 10.

Race 4:  Tough race and Probable pass but from a pure trainer stat point of view, always difficult to go against Mitchell acquisitions so have to give consideration to Stash (2) first out for Mitchell with a switch to the lawn for BMW dealer, Nick “Nick Can’t Say No” Alexander.  Wild card may be Foundation Room (1) imported by Shulman for Track Pres R. Charles.  They brought one over earlier in the meet and price will be nice.  Alpine Yodel (3) cuts back for King Jer who may still be perturbed at Bejarano for crummy ride this last Saturday but apparently is not holding a grudge.  JT combos 2, 3, 5, 6.

Race 5:  See Daily Report for comment on Flying Suances (1).  Others here appear capable as well with Rebecca (8) being very well prepped for this so perhaps a “bookend” exacta?  JT combos 4, 6.

Race 6:  Pass for me.  See Daily Report for Warren’s take on Time for Atonement (7) which has decent ML of 6/1 and King Jer using Garcia who is rapidly becoming the new David Flores.   However, main money riders Bejarano and Rosario end up elsewhere.  Jt combo 1.

Race 7:  Probable pass.  Like chances of Domonation (5) which chased some KD types last time at OP.  Price not great but Bejarano gets on and think this one is the horse to beat on the comeback.  Will have to catch Toro Trippi (8) and perhaps Winter Camp (9).  JT combos 1, 2, 4, 5, 7

Race 8:  Probable pass.  No, even though may have some speed, not going back to Vargas today.   Hard to ignore anything Conlon sends out but 3/1 on Sweet Patricia (3) is no big insight.  Ditto for Our Bellini Bikini (7) from O’Neill.  Give a puncher’s chance to Excessive Chatter (10) for Kitchingman.  JT combos 5, 7

Golden Gate

Race 1:  Pass race in which all 5 has a shot with only real question is Freefall (3) ready?  Jt combos 1, 2, 4, 5.

Race 2:  Sonora Native (6) comes from Morey barn that can strike early at a price.  Use of Martinez on horse no problem as have been nicely warm as of late.  Presence of Decatur Island (2) and Silver Sparkster (5) should ensure price stays at or about ML and if so, worth a shot.  JT combos 3, 4.

Race 3:  Tough race but usually interested in anything Ordonez sends out so giving a long look at Yorkville Kid (2) at 10/1 on the ML who keeps money rider Antongrgi.  They are about 50% exacta as of late.  Carson’s Copper (1) and Leader of the Band (5) are the obvious horses to beat but Yorkie may have plenty of pace to chase and get up in time.  Jt combos 1, 2, 5.

Race 4:  Pass Hearts Ablazin (5) tough chalk.  JT combos 5.

Race 5:  Pass.  Brian the Brave (4) looks tough on the ship up and drop and could be long gone against these at a miniscule price.  Might give a second look to Double Excesso (3) on the cutback for low percentage trainer Ptinick but would want more than 10/1 ML on that.  Have to beware of anything Pederson sends out so if playing race, consider Benz the Rules (8) Jt combos 2, 4, 8.  Note:  Tyler Kaplan won a race last week at Santa Anita and I saw him on the monitors at TuP over the weekend.  Moral:  Do not trust DRF stats.

Race 6:  Pass.  Pretty sure that post time fave will be Boyo (7) on the maturity play for MIyadi and Baze and no value.  Like Morey giving K Stra a shot on Salt Flats (2) – see earlier comment on his ability with firsters.  ALso note that Pitnick has been working Marine Fog (4) hard early and if that translates, then he’s got a big shot, too with Romero up.  JT combo 7.

Race 7:  Pass.  No JT combos.

Race 8:  Martinez winds up on ML favorite In Session (2) so have to consider that.  Still, anything J Martin sends out merits consideration so Rocky Road (4) with Hernandez rates attention and price might drift up from ML of 7/2.  At 5/1 or better, maybe take a shot with this closer who will have pace to chase.  JT combos 1, 2

Technorati Tags: California Horse Race Handicapping, Dan Serra, Golden Gate Fields, Jerry Hollendorfer, Mark Geiger, Price Horse Central, Santa Anita Park, Warren Eves

Tags: California Horse Race Handicapping, Dan Serra, Golden Gate Fields, Jerry Hollendorfer, Mark Geiger, Price Horse Central, Santa Anita Park, Warren Eves

This entry was posted by Mark Geiger on Thursday, March 11th, 2010 at 7:48 am and is filed under Price Horse Central, Today's Pick. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.